Operation Sindoor's Political Fallout: BJP Eyes Nationalist Momentum To Boost Poll Prospects In Bihar, Bengal, Assam

The four days of intense near-war, which brought Pakistan to its knees and forced it to seek a ceasefire, have given the Narendra Modi government a significant boost in strength and stability. The repercussions of this could echo far and wide in Indian politics.

The immediate question on everyone’s mind is what happens next, and how will Operation Sindoor shape domestic politics? Given India’s obsession with politics and the constant churn of election calculations, it is only natural to wonder whether this will sway the electorate at large.

The next round of elections begins with the Bihar Legislative Assembly polls in October-November this year, followed by Assam and West Bengal in March-April, 2026. Puducherry goes to the polls in April, Tamil Nadu in April-May, and Kerala in May next year.

Public memory, of course, is short. Except for Bihar, where voting is just five months away, the other elections are nearly a year from now. But politicians, especially the BJP, have mastered the art of keeping the narrative alive for long stretches. The BJP reaped the rewards of the Kargil War in the 1999 elections.

That conflict came at a crucial time, just after the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government had lost a trust vote in Parliament and was functioning as a caretaker government until fresh elections were held. Though the armed forces fought and won the war in treacherous terrain, the political dividend went to the BJP, which returned to power with greater numbers.

The party benefitted again in 2019 after the surgical strike on terror camps in Balakot, Pakistan. The Modi government did not go looking for that opportunity. It was handed to them. The February 14, 2019, Pulwama attack on a CRPF convoy sparked nationwide outrage and demands for retribution.

The February 26 surgical strike dealt a heavy blow to Pakistan and, coming just months before the general elections, effectively crushed the opposition’s hopes of unseating Modi.

The Congress, in particular, damaged its credibility by questioning the government on the Rafale deal and demanding proof of the surgical strike. The BJP stormed back to power, crossing the 300-seat mark in the Lok Sabha.

A similar wave of national anger erupted after the April 26 Pahalgam massacre of tourists. This time, even the Opposition stood with the government, demanding retaliation. India’s response, a series of precision strikes deep inside Pakistan, left the neighbour humiliated and scrambling for a ceasefire.

Nationalist sentiment reached an unprecedented peak, perhaps amplified by social media’s role in shaping public opinion. Even Modi’s staunchest critics momentarily set aside their grievances, sensing the public mood.

For now, the limited war is over. Pakistan’s only consolation was securing a $1 billion IMF loan, likely with undisclosed conditions including the ceasefire. India, too, had its reason to agree to the truce. IMF, in this case, stood for Indian Mission Fulfilled.

The Opposition, having learnt from past mistakes, was careful not to oppose the government this time. That denies the BJP the chance to paint them as anti-national. But that does not mean the BJP’s nationalist narrative has lost steam. The Bihar elections, crucial for the party, will be the first test of whether this nationalist fervour translates into votes.

The BJP can tailor its campaign by contrasting its decisive action against Pakistan with previous governments’ perceived helplessness in the face of cross-border terrorism. References to Pakistan and reminders that the Pahalgam victims were targeted based on religion could help consolidate Hindu votes, with slogans like Batenge to Katenge striking a chord.

Even so, the BJP-led NDA knows winning Bihar will not be easy. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s fading popularity and questions about his mental agility have weakened the alliance.

The decision to conduct a caste-based census was clearly aimed at the elections, an attempt to win over sections of voters who believe such an exercise will address their grievances, never mind that past censuses identifying Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes have not led to tangible benefits for them.

Bihar’s voters have also shown a tendency to vote differently in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. The BJP’s stellar performances in the 2014 and 2019 general elections did not carry over to the state polls in 2015 and 2020.

A victory in Bihar, fuelled by anti-Pakistan rhetoric, could embolden the BJP to deploy the same strategy in West Bengal, where communal tensions in Murshidabad remain a live issue. In 2021, the BJP came agonisingly close to toppling Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress from power but fell short. With the Left and Congress now reduced to mere spectators, the BJP is the only force that can push Mamata to the edge.

This communal-tinged nationalist approach may find limited appeal in southern states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where regional identity and local issues dominate political discourse.

However, in Bihar, Assam and West Bengal, where security concerns and national pride can influence voting behaviour, it could become a decisive factor. The challenge for the BJP now is to sustain this nationalist momentum until these states go to the polls and then convert it into electoral gains.

Ajay Jha is a senior journalist, author and political commentator.