China's soybean imports from US jump in March, but Brazil set to dominate market

China's soybean imports from the United States rose 12% in March from the same period last year, as shipments secured in late 2024 by buyers concerned about the potential for a trade spat between the U.S. and China arrived in port.

However, Brazil is expected to dominate the market in the coming months as its harvest season begins.

China brought in 2.44 million metric tons of the oilseed from the U.S. in March, according to the General Administration of Customs, or just under three-quarters of total imports.

"March arrivals reflect crushers' precautionary purchases in Q4 last year amid concerns over renewed trade tensions should Trump return to office," said analyst Rosa Wang at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI.

Imports from Brazil dropped 69% in March to 0.95 million tons, or 27% of total soybean imports for the month. Slower shipments were partly attributed to harvest delays in the Latin American country.

Total soybean arrivals in March tumbled to their lowest for the month since 2008.

For the January-March quarter, China's soybean shipments from the U.S. rose 62% from a year earlier to 11.6 million tons. Shipments from Brazil were 4.5 million tons, down 55% from a year earlier.

This brings Brazil's market share in the first quarter to 26%, compared to the 68% for the United States, according to Reuters calculations.

Analysts forecast China's soybean imports could reach a record 31.3 million tons in April-June, driven by the arrival of freshly harvested beans from Brazil's bumper crop.